Why Banning nuclear weapons didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize

Here are some reasons the Nobel Peace Prize didn’t go to the Organization for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

First, many people believe that the existence of nuclear weapons actually saved lives by ending World War II sooner and then later preventing war between the US and the former Soviet Union.  Today nuclear weapons could arguably be said to be useful in protecting Israel, South Korea and preventing a serious war between the US and China if hostilities break out over some escalation of violence over some territorial dispute with one of our sworn allies Taiwan or Japan.  It’s fair to reason that the second Iraq war would have never happened if Saddam would have had nuclear weapons. 

Second, there is the remote possibility that nuclear weapons could be useful in protecting humanity from celestial threats such as asteroids or some other non-earthly force.

Third, the possession of nuclear weapons is extremely expensive and complicated.  Few in the world retain them, fewer still want to make them, and any actual imposed ban on making them could start another war (See Iraq and Iran).

Fourth, while hypothetically it is technologically feasible to detect a violation of a ban on nuclear weapons (which radiate a unique and potentially detectible signal -- unlike chemical or biological weapons) any attempt to verify a ban would be prohibitively expensive and physically intrusive in nations that may not want, or allow such inspections.  This would inevitably result in a deterioration of almost any ‘trust but verify’ schemes.   

Fifth, we have not witnessed the effects of a nuclear weapon in over 5 decades.  The recent use of chemical weapons and the increasingly likelihood that more such incidences (state or rebel/terrorist sponsored) has many people in high or knowledgeable places very concerned, puts this potential WMD high on humanities ‘security’ radar.

Last, and perhaps most important point is that bans on almost anything never work.  Remember alcohol prohibition?  How about the war like ban against drugs like marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamines (if you say Breaking Bad you get a sense of just how easy it is to hide a chemical or biological lab which with enough motivation could produce damn near bio/chem WMD one can imagine). If people want something bad enough they will find a way to get it or make it.  Especially because of the dual-use nature of all technology.  
The dual-use nature of biotechnology, cyber technology or chemical precursors, not to mention conventional technology (car bombs, airplanes as missiles, pressure cookers…) means that any future focusing on the banning of any weapon will require the most intrusive inspection capacity ever known to Human kind or the NSA.  Such an effort would be prohibitively expensive economically and politically…and ultimately a failure.

If security is the priority, a far wiser use of resources and political will should be directed at creating a world of justice and well-being where the motivation to mass murder is virtually nonexistent.  And when it does crop up…we will have maximum public support in finding and prosecuting anyone hostile enough to use them or just threatening to use them.

Ultimately, security is not a function of armaments or disarmament. It is a function of justice and the protection of our most cherished inalienable human rights referenced in both the US Constitution and the more comprehensive list in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. 

It appears we have forgotten the wisdom of our elders (Gandhi, Eleanor Roosevelt, Martin Luther King... and our profits (Jesus, Mohammad…) when they urged us to take care of one another, love one another, turn the other cheek, feed the hungry and cloth the poor. Heal the sick and treat others as you would want them to treat you.  

In this context Malala was infinitely more deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize than any other individual or entity.  Education and forgiveness is at the heart of peace…not popular notions to control what can never be controlled.

"One single gram of crystalline toxin...wuold kill more than one million people." JAMA 2001 publication

A consensus statement on C. botulinum toxin as a biological weapon published in 2001 in JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association calculated that “a single gram of crystalline toxin, evenly dispersed and inhaled, would kill more than one million people.”

Anyone having done home style canning of foods to preserve them in cans or jars you will know that Botulism is hard NOT to make. Any industrial size canning facility or home kitchen operation could be a potential source of this natural source of WMD. And kitchens or factories aren’t the only possible covert places for producing it.

The Scientific American article below suggests that scientist studying this new and more lethal strain of botulism believe they can keep the knowledge of it hidden from evil people. They seem to forget that the most likely culprit of the 2001 anthrax attack on our nation’s capital was orchestrated by a scientist from a Federally funded bioweapon research lab about 40 miles away from Washington DC.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=researchers-keep-mum-on-botulism-discovery&WT.mc_id=SA_CAT_HLTH_20131022

Headlines increasingly merging with trend lines. Shut down threatened national security.

The October 2013 US government shut down exposed a significant weakness of our Constitutional republic. The consequences were felt locally, nationally and globally. Basically, our democratic system allowed a tiny fraction of a political opposition party to dictate whether the US would pay its ‘non essential’ government workers. Even if those workers are ultimately essential to our nation’s security and protecting or saving the lives of individual Americans.

As Congress debated and another debt ceiling approached this tiny minority put the US economy at risk of default. A default that most political and economic experts believed would have had catastrophic effects on the US economy and ultimately the world economy. The global effect would have fueled the lawlessness that gives further advantage to terrorists and global organized crime which are increasingly working together to weaken US power.

The minor structural factor of the US Constitution (based on the concept of independence) that allows political parties to gerrymander Congressional districts virtually ensures a particular party will win the District election. This legal rule pits members of the same party against each other and leads to favoring the purist party ideologue. This closed system strongly encourages more radical posturing. While it may hurt that party in the long run, the short term consequence can produce politics and politicians that push extremist policy and put the whole world at risk. And, the rest of the world has no vote how it turns out.

The bad news is that Americans rarely change their political structures without the motivation of actual pain and suffering here at home.

So aside from the real national security risks listed below that were directly associated with the government shut down, the global consequences could have been worse.

1. On the Wednesday after the shutdown US intelligence officials warned that the government shutdown was making our nation more vulnerable to terrorist attacks and other security risks by forcing US spy agencies to send tens of thousands of employees home. The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified that furloughs of civilian employees could have an ‘insidious’ effect, degrading intelligence-gathering capabilities in ways that may not become fully clear for weeks or months. He went on to testify that “As each day goes by, the impact and the jeopardy to the safety and security of this country will increase.” Key intelligence officers considered “Essential” will be kept in place but Clapper’s office indicated that 72% of the intelligence community work force has been sent home creating holes in virtually every agency and department.

2. Iran Sanctions weakened. The under-secretary of state for political affairs, Wendy Sherman, says the ability to enforce sanctions on Iran has been significantly hampered. "Note, our ability to do that, to enforce sanctions, to stop sanction evaders, is being hampered significantly by the shutdown," she told the Senate foreign relations committee on October 3rd. The Office of Foreign Assets Control, the Treasury team responsible for overseeing the sanctions, was "utterly depleted", she said.

3. Embassy security: Intelligence staff in the US provide information that means as much or more to embassy staff abroad as the uniformed Marines that guard the embassy gates. One aspect of the security failure at the US facility in Benghazi, Libya which killed 4 Americans was a lack of sufficient intelligence.

4. Chemical security: The Obama administration added closure of the Homeland Security Department's chemical security program to its list of reasons why Congress should end the partial government shutdown. The Chemical Facilities Anti-terrorism Standards (CFATS) program, which is in the middle of a multi-year effort to approve security plans for high risk chemical plants in the United States, ceased most operations last week as a result of the congressional stalemate over fiscal 2014 spending and health-care reform, Global Security Newswire reported. Congress has yet to permanently authorize the CFATS program, so the failure to pass a spending bill means the initiative not only lacks funds but also the legal authority to operate. "This underscores the need for the shutdown to end, and for Congress to pass a permanent reauthorization of the CFATS program," DHS spokesman Clark Stevens said in a statement to GSN. Stevens confirmed that employees of the Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, which runs the chemical security program, have been furloughed.

5. Economic Security: If the shutdown lasts long enough it could crimple the US economy (the source of our military funding and educational foundation that provides us with troops and advanced technologies). The two-and-a-half-week government shutdown probably reduced quarterly G.D.P. growth by about 0.3 per cent. Hopefully, the same mentality won’t lead to our nation’s debt default which would be catastrophic to our prosperity, freedom and security.

6. Bio Security: NIH/CDC non-essential employees who help monitor disease outbreaks here and abroad are vital to early detection and response of pandemics or bioterrorist events. With the speed of global air travel a matter of a few hours delay in detection of a pathogen could mean tens of thousands if not millions sick and/or dying.

7. Space security: Are NASA employees working to detect near earth objects similar to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs…considered nonessential employees? The amazing answer is ‘yes’.

8. Food security: More Americans die from food contamination each year than from the attacks on 9-11. Food inspectors are helpful in keeping those numbers down and from detecting any possible intentional contamination of the food we consume. Nearly half of all Americans ingest legal drugs. Inspections and speedier drug approval also saves American lives.

9. Maintaining alliances: Individual nations cannot effectively cope with any global threat (terrorism, pandemics, chem/bio/cyber WMD attacks, climate change, economic instability, genocide) without strong international cooperation. Obama was scheduled to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Bali next week but on Thursday the White House canceled it’s plans for the trip. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Bali a few days ahead of time. Obama excluded China from his planned 12 nation Trans-Pacific Partnership. Xi pushed his his rival pact, which included China and 15 other nations but not the US. Regional trade deals, offsetting Chinese power and it’s territorial claims (Japan, Taiwan, Burma…) in the region and other foreign policy developments in US interest in that part of the world will have to wait.

Ultimately, this flaw in our constitutional frame work should be reversed. But even if our nation strives for a more perfect union, political extremists anywhere in the world increasingly have the power to influence the economic, political, health, security, environmental and legal aspects of our nation. Neither the national or the global lack of accountability is unlikely to be addressed anytime soon. And we all live with increased risks because of it.

Obamacare a greater threat to US security than Al Qaeda?

National security threatened by US Government Shut down.

1. On Wednesday US intelligence officials warned that the government shutdown is making our nation more vulnerable to terrorist attacks and other security risks by forcing US spy agencies to send tens of thousands of employees home. The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified that furloughs of civilian employees could have an ‘insidious’ effect, degrading intelligence-gathering capabilities in ways that may not become fully clear for weeks or months. He went on to testify that “As each day goes by, the impact and the jeopardy to the safety and security of this country will increase.”  Key intelligence officers considered “Essential” will be kept in place but Clapper’s office indicated that 72% of the intelligence community work force has been sent home creating holes in virtually every agency and department.

2. Iran Sanctions weakened.  The under-secretary of state for political affairs, Wendy Sherman, says the ability to enforce sanctions on Iran has been significantly hampered. "Note, our ability to do that, to enforce sanctions, to stop sanction evaders, is being hampered significantly by the shutdown," she told the Senate foreign relations committee on October 3rd.  The Office of Foreign Assets Control, the Treasury team responsible for overseeing the sanctions, was "utterly depleted", she said.

3. Embassy security: Intelligence staff in the US provide information that means as much or more to embassy staff abroad as the uniformed Marines that guard the embassy gates.  One aspect of the security failure at the US facility in Benghazi, Libya which killed 4 Americans was a lack of sufficient intelligence.

4.  Economic Security:  If the shutdown lasts long enough it could crimple the US economy (the source of our military funding and educational foundation that provides us with troops and advanced technologies).  Hopefully, the same mentality won’t lead to our nation’s debt default which would be catastrophic to our prosperity, freedom and security.

5.  Bio Security: NIH/CDC non-essential employees who help monitor disease outbreaks here and abroad are vital to early detection and response of pandemics or bioterrorist events.   With the speed of global air travel a matter of a few hours delay in detection of a pathogen could mean tens of thousands if not millions sick and/or dying.  

6.  Space security: Are NASA employees working to detect near earth objects similar to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs…considered nonessential employees? The amazing answer is ‘yes’.

7.  Food security: 

8.  Maintaining alliances:  Individual nations cannot effectively cope with any global threat (terrorism, pandemics, chem/bio/cyber WMD attacks, climate change, economic instability, genocide) without strong international cooperation.  Obama was scheduled to attend the Asia-Pasific Economic Cooperation forum in Bali next week but on Thursday the White House canceled it’s plans for the trip. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Bali a few days ahead of time.  Regional trade deals, offsetting Chinese power and it’s territorial claims (Japan, Tawian, Burma…) in the region or other foreign policy developments in that part of the world will have to wait .

If Obama care is really a greater threat to American security than all of the above…the Republican tea party enthusiasts have done everyone, including Al Qaeda and the Chinese a favor.

Syria has no solution without world federation

There is no peaceful or lasting solution in the murderous Syrian uncivil war without the world giving the solemn protection of human rights supremacy over national sovereignty.  And, even that will be a source of violence…but it at least it would lead to a lasting solution.   Every other action will only fuel the likelihood of a larger war between Sunni and Shiite sects which will not be contained by Syria’s artificial national borders or it’s prized national sovereignty.  

Arms, money and recruits are already sifting through both with no meaningful or effective mechanisms for control.   These are forcefully dividing Lebanese factions, emboldening Turkey’s Kurds, educating Iran’s extremists leaders and creating problems for US/Russia relations.   The US is damned if it gets involved…and damned as much if we don’t.    Even Senator John McCain, a conservative interventionist believes “every military option in Syria sucks.”

The impending collapse of Syria into a failed state would likely yield chemical weapons to Al Qaida linked forces given the virtual impossible task of eliminating all chemical weapons on a short deadline with limited UN resources while working in conflict zone.   
There is nothing to stop the mass murder or to try and find and destroy all chemical weapons without massive intervention on the ground.  And sticking one’s hands or head into the Syrian bear trap is considered madness by any rational thinking soul.

So what other option is available?  One that seems even more remote than Syrian peace but far more realistic in yielding a rational and sustainable solution for Syria (and other potential failed states or seemingly impossible to solve crisis coming) has been with us for over 60 years.  The answer?  A new global constitution or UN Charter revision that puts the enforcement of human rights supreme to the protections of national sovereignty that allows governments to do anything they want, whenever they want, to whomever they want.   We the people of the world are ready for it…but those in power in governments will resist vehemently and even violently…unless they are educated about the consequences of failing to move toward this sane and sustainable solution. 
Time is not on our side. 

Navy Yard Shooting, assault on the capital, government shut down and the NSA.

In the wake of the Navy Yard shootings and the possible IED car assault on the two prominent Capital Hill targets one might wonder, can we ever have too much information on our citizens? Looking back at the anti government thinking and action by Timothy McVeigh and today's anti big government forces shutting down or Federal government and the national security implications of the shut down, perhaps more information on all American citizens is necessary. It appears both private citizens and public policy makers are a growing threat.

Given the range of other security threats and the growing destructive power increasingly available to any individual, group or nation it would seem the NSA should be spying more on anyone, anywhere and all the time by any means (one weaponized smallpox virus could ruin our whole day).

In spite of Constitutional constraints (4th Amendment) today's federal statutes appear to enable such surveillance. The secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court seems to authorize the NSA’s collection of any information about any person anywhere and at any time without identifying the person or showing probable cause of criminal behavior.

Such general searches were condemned by our nation's founders. From the likes of radical Sam Adams to the more conservative George Washington. From the individualistic Thomas Jefferson to the pro big-government perspective of Alexander Hamilton. The literature of their day clearly implies that the soul purpose of the Fourth Amendment was (and still is) to prohibit general warrants. Individualized probable cause and specifically identification of the target was/is required.

But since 2004 this hasn't been the case. Meetings between the Senate Select Intelligence Committee and Gen. Keith Alexander and Deputy Attorney General James Cole suggest that the FISA court has permitted the NSA to seize more than just telephone records. Internet and texting records, utility and credit card bills, banking and social-media records, and digital images of appear to be fair game. And their doesn't appear to be any upper limit on the number of Americans’ records seized or the nature of those records.

The FISA court judges are sworn to secrecy. They are not allowed to keep records of what they have done. And, there is no one to oppose what the NSA seeks. The Court doesn't listen to challenging testimony. This isn't a court and it certainly isn't constitutional. It is federal judges secretly approving the secret wishes of the government. These judges are not performing a judicial function. But it does appear to be a vital security function.

The US government was intended to work for us and derive its powers from the consent of the governed. Have Americans given consent for increased security and reduced privacy by their silence after Sept 11, 2001? What do we want in the future as threats to our security increase?

There are well over 4,500 official federal crimes. Any NSA investigation could likely find something wrong with anyone if it looked long enough and hard enough. Lavrenti Beria, Stalin’s chief of secret police once proclaimed “Show me the man, and I will find you the crime.” History teaches that any government unconstrained by law or force eventually finds a heretic. With the awesome power of the US Government do we really want to relinquish our Fourth Amendment or raise arms agaist it in real or perceived violations?

Andrew P. Napolitano, former Judge of the Superior Court of NJ said “If the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness — which are the stated reasons for forming the United States of America in the first place — means anything, its means that we all possess the inalienable right to be different and the inalienable right to be left alone.” But can the US continue to exist with the internal, external and celestial threats we face if we don't have the right intelligence fast enough to respond adequately to prevent the civilization killing technologies ubiquitous globally or the natural events that are inevitable in our future.

The NSA with FISA powers has now given our federal government the potential for an authoritarian state far more odious than any other in history. Only by enforcing all inalienable rights globally can we begin to reduce the threats we face and the shrink the size of the security minded federal government we now live under.