Do The Freakin Math

Liberals and conservatives alike frequently rely on limited evidence, personal experience, religious beliefs or gut emotions to determine solutions for complex problems. From immigration to global warming - taxes to terrorism - or health care to free trade - analytical study is rare. Science based policy making isn’t the way of Washington. And the consequences are catastrophic. Change is urgently needed. Just do the freakin’ math.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

McCain budget weak on national security

Dear Editor,


“Budgetopia” (Washington Times “Nation” A19, 8-22-08) showing the spending and savings of both Presidential candidates Obama and McCain -- if they are elected -- tells a lot about their commitment to national security.

Senator McCain, who admittedly knows little about economics, appears to put budget cuts ahead of national security. Senator Obama who supposedly has less experience in national security actually devotes twice the funding as McCain to increased military funding and three times the funding for “green technology” that will help us break our addition to terrorists oil. But more importantly Obama wants to “double” our “foreign aid” budget. Even Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is clear about the value of dramatically increasing our nations ‘soft power’ as an equally important tool in defeating terrorists. Earlier this year he acknowledged the “need for a dramatic increase in spending on the civilian instruments of national security--diplomacy, strategic communications, foreign assistance, civic action, and economic reconstruction and development”. If Al Qaeda is truly the murderous threat that McCain and other national security ‘experts’ claim then Obama’s budget is better suited to addressing this threat than McCain.

But even more importantly, increasing our foreign aid for health, education, water, sanitation, nutrition and microcredit efforts is also the most effective means of reducing a far greater threat to Americans and our way of life than Al Qaeda – nature’s inevitable pandemics. A future bird flu which could easily kill more Americans than the blast of a terrorists nuclear weapon.

Improving the lives of the poor and inventing greener technology that could help wean them from their need for terrorist’s oil will also assist in reducing our contributions to climate change.

The links between US foreign aid and improving our nation’s security is clearly detailed in a bipartisan bill H. RES. 1268, but it is H. Res 1078 calling for a new Global Marshall Plan that calls for an adequate budget for a comprehensive approach to national security. And H Res 1078’s funding increase would come from new sources of funding like a ‘Tobin tax’ producing no increase in our already overstretched federal budget.

The primary objection most conservatives have to such a ‘global tax’ is their unexamined fear of losing our sovereignty. But as Gen. Victor Renuart, Commander of the U.S. Northern Command, recently stated regarding a wide array of threats all American’s face… “we must sacrifice some of our sovereignty” if we want to “increase our national security”. General Renuart was commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom and knows more than most about the threats we face from both traditional and non-traditional threats.

Obama clearly understands that or national security is most improved by improving the lives of everyone on this interdependent plant and by making friends in faraway places to effectively prevent common threats. And, it looks like McCain is more interested in winning the votes of fiscal conservatives.

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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

No such thing as "Domestic" AIDS problem

Dear Editor,

Dr. Blumenthal and Melissa Shive make a good case for renewed focus on addressing the global HIV/AIDS pandemic more here at home. It was shocking to read in their column that DC infection rates are greater than many impoverished Third World countries.

Their plea for more funding however would be more persuasive if they included a few over vital bits of information.

First, the failed to make clear that the AIDS RNA based virus has an extraordinarily high mutation rate of about 1%. That means that in every person infected with HIV there is a potential for about 2 million variations of this lethal virus produced each day. Most variations are insignificant but some lead to new strains of the virus that are resistant to our best treatments. This makes speed and scope of US and global treatment and prevention efforts are vital to putting AIDS in “the history books” and preventing the evolution of the virus that could become airborne or water borne. Viruses are efficient at trading gene segments with other viruses and sometimes they are incorporated into bacteria. With nearly a third of all HIV/AIDS deaths the result of TB infections and already a lacking global health infrastructure to deal with it and other deadly or disabling infectious agents it is incomparably urgent to address global health needs from a more comprehensive perspective.

Recent genetic analysis of the origins of the AIDS virus determined that it first entered the United States in the early 1970s via a Haitian air lines steward. I just returned from Haiti this week where increasing poverty as a result of food and oil price increases are putting more Haitians at risk of infections. As many as 1000 people a day fly out of Port-au-Prince for Miami or New York. We will fail to address the AIDS threat if we make a distinction between foreign and domestic infections, AIDS or TB, poverty or ignorance.

Only a comprehensive focus on global health infrastructure, basic education, adequate nutrition, clean water and sanitation, political and environmental stability, and adequate sustainable economic growth will protect us from what former Secretary of State and Joint Military Chief of Staff, Colin Powell once said was a greater threat to our national security than Al Qaeda.

There is no shortage of money if political leaders were willing to put human security needs above their misplaced patronage of ‘national sovereignty’. A micro tax on global currency speculation could yield the resources needed for such a comprehensive global/domestic approach while also contributing to increasing global economic stability. That was the original idea of the “Tobin tax” that helped Economics Professor James Tobin win the Nobel prize in Economics nearly 30 years ago.

Pathogens change. Let’s hope our politicians can.

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Thursday, July 24, 2008

AIDS isn't exceptional.

Dear Editor,

The concerns regarding ‘exceptional response to AIDS” are valid -- even if their negative specifics aren’t. Increased funding and attention to counter the global HIV/AIDS threat has contributed overall to other health opportunities. But progressive advocates for other global health needs continue to waste time and efforts competing for a limited supply of insufficient Government crumbs. Three factors must be fully recognized and responded to before this persistent problem evolves into a catastrophic global health event.

First, a new source of funding adequate to the challenge must be found and seriously advocated for. A Tobin tax, a carbon tax, a global health security tax...something that will provide sufficient resources for a truly universal global health infrastructure. One that includes clean water, sanitation, nutrition and basic education along with a global network of primary health facilities adequately furnished and supplied and with adequately trained staff.

Second, basic health needs must be pushed within the context of national security -- instead of just meeting humanitarian needs. Pulling heart strings alone will never open sufficient purse strings that are now urgently needed. It took 4 dollar a gallon gasoline to get Congress serious about weaning our nation from oil. We can’t wait for the equivalent infectious disease ‘wakeup call’ for serious congressional and presidential leadership.

Last, only by pulling together in support of a truly comprehensive approach to meeting global human health needs (such as H. Res 1078 calling for a new Global Marshall Plan) will we achieve our progressive vision of health and a truly civilized and secure world.

As Nobel Laureate Dr. Joshua Lederberg once said “Pathogens change. Why can’t we”.


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Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Hunger and HIV/AIDS:

On AIDS Day this December 1st we heard both good news and bad. AIDS infections were fewer than originally predicted but our global effort to develop an HIV/AIDS vaccine had failed -- again. What we didn’t hear was any news about the link between hunger and this perfectly murderous RNA based virus -- HIV. That’s a shame. Because the links between hunger and HIV/AIDS are profound.

The latest scientific thinking (conspiracy theories excluded) pegs the HIV virus originating in the primates of Africa and moving into the Human population sometime in the early to late 1940s. Then, for nearly 40 years it was ignored as it migrated down the Kinshasa Hi-way and traveled effortlessly to all four corners of our remarkably interconnected world. No one spotted it because those who fell victim appeared to be dying from hunger. Their deaths were attributed to the so called “Slims disease”. Skinny Africans dying from some ‘hunger’ disease simply didn’t draw much attention. Recently, an evolutionary biologist was able to trace our first domestic AIDS infections back to the early 1970s from a single Haitian entering the US though Miami. Few then were interested in the living conditions in Haiti. It wasn’t until the early 1980’s in the San Francisco ‘gay’ bath houses that HIV became painfully obvious to the American people. And, even then, it was only of interest to those who had special interests in medicine or sexual deviancy. Few people or policy makers consider what our world would be like today if we had been more interested in those African people dying of hunger decades earlier. Or, the health concerns of Haitians who inhabit the most impoverished and destitute place in our Hemisphere.

I learned of the terror of HIV/AIDS early and up close. My wife Laura and I were living in the San Francisco Bay area working for the Hunger Project and expecting our first child. Tauna’s birth in a San Francisco hospital in November of 1983 was the happiest day of my life. Months later that event was the source of the most frightening day of our lives. Laura had received a blood transfusion during the birthing process. Suddenly our survival was linked to the lives of the poorest people in the most remotest rainforest in Africa. My wife was far luckier than the women who became prostitutes in hopes of earning enough to feed their children. Their work helped speed the virus down every African road that any infected truck driver would take. And, those infected led all the way to the Bay Area.

Today, while most are concerned about Al Qaeda or global warming, one of the most evil and devastating alliances continues to expand. It is estimated that one out of every three people who die of HIV/AIDS actually die from TB. The compromised immune system is no match for even a weak strain of TB, never mind the drug resistant, multi-drug resistant and extremely drug resistant strains of TB that we have among us today… mostly in the poorest populations but also now making its début even in the upper classes. And too few seem to care that TB spreads easiest in immune systems compromised by malnutrition. We have cheap drugs that can fight the regular forms of TB believed to be in one out of every three people in the world. But good nutrition remains the best natural defense against TB.

The most terrorizing fact however is the continuing hyper evolution of the HIV genetic material. RNA based viruses are far less stable than DNA based. It is estimate that HIV has a 1% mutation rate. The average untreated HIV infected person has approximately 2 billion replications of the HIV virus in their bodies EACH DAY. If you do the math…that comes out to roughly 2 0 million possible variations of the HIV virus per day…per infected untreated person. One of the other frightening traits of pathogens is their ability to swap genetic segments with completely different viruses. (Regular E.coli became deadly E.Coli 0157 after it received the deadly Shigella bacterial gene segment #0157. Sometimes we speed this process with intentional biological experiments (working to create an AIDS vaccine by combining segments of HIV with the common Cold virus) or accidental biological experiments (mutinogenic toxins in the environment or the improper use of antiviral medicines during well meaning treatments). There is no shortage of examples of links between environmental degradation and hunger…or hunger and illiteracy. And, there is HIV linked every day and in every way.

Last but not least, everyone knows that war leads to hunger and the rapid spread of infectious diseases. Unfortunately, we must continually be reminded that hunger and the insecurity of poverty related diseases can contribute to exacerbating conflicts. It is now in the Horn of Africa where US Marines are more likely to be drilling water wells, building schools or irrigation projects than they are to be hunting or killing terrorists. The U.S. military knows full well from its failings in Iraq that the best way to fight terrorism is to win the hearts and minds of the locals. Their work in Africa’s poorest regions is to establish a friendly environment where Al Qaeda will not grow. Even Jarheads know that winning hearts and minds first requires a full stomach.

AIDS, like Al Qaida, spreads best in ignorance and chaos. And where ever there is hunger… we will also find ignorance and chaos.

A few years after 9-11 Colin Powel said AIDS was a greater threat to national security than Al Qaida. Recently Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates called for our government to commit more money and effort to “soft power” tools, including diplomacy, economic assistance and communications, because the military alone cannot defend America’s interests around the world.

World hunger won’t be solved until a super majority of US policy makers hunger enough for justice, wisdom, peace, sanity and lasting security. HIV/AIDS is only the most recent window through which to view the continuing holocaust of our times…world hunger…in a world of plenty.

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