Chemical weapon mass murder in Syria. What’s next?
What we must learn.
The killer question is ‘Who did it?’ Most reports suggest it was the Assad regime. Conspiracy buffs think anti Assad forces
could have orchestrated the attack hoping to benefit by blaming Assad. One friend in Europe believes it was Al Qaeda
hoping to draw the US into yet another war to cost us treasure and lives.
Hopefully we will learn at least four valuable lessons from
this latest mass murder. Vital lessons
that Americans and the world failed to learn after the two most recent chemical
mass killings; the Kurds and Iranians in 1980s by Saddam Hussein and the 1995
attack on the Japanese subway orchestrated by an extremist religious cult.
Learning these lessons is essential because they will happen
again. And eventually the attacks will
be biological in nature with most biologicals representing an entirely new classification
of weapons - cheaper, more deadly, easier to deliver, and harder to
control. Chemical weapons like most
weapons are used up when delivered. Some
biological agents like Anthrax are in this traditional class but infectious
agents like smallpox (and dozens of others) are replicable weapons. When used they reproduce themselves for free
and in silence. And with advances in
biotechnology their potential for extraordinary effectiveness is growing. The first lesson we may now learn is that
these weapons (chemical, biological and cyber) will be increasingly used by governments,
extremists and crazies because of their lethality, affordability, concealability
and deniability.
Thus the second lesson.
Without someone claiming credit identifying the source of these weapons will
require an extensive, intensive and expensive scientific forensic investigation. Any chance of success will require considerable
access to the crime scene and an intrusive investigation by a neutral and credible
entity. Three things most nations are
unlikely to agree to. And, even if they
do, finding the guilty party could be extremely difficult as with the US
Governments most intensive manhunt in history trying to determine the
individual responsible for the Anthrax attacks on our own soil a few weeks
after 9-11. It took nearly a decade to determine
who the most likely culprit was. Doubts
persist.
Third lesson: Even
the most intrusive collection of information won’t be sufficient to identify all
attackers in advance. Preemption is
possible…but increasingly unlikely as individuals learn of government surveillance
techniques and publically available technologies advance giving more power to
the murderers than the investigators.
Last lesson: Unless
we change our societal/cultural trajectory that accepts war, national sovereignty,
lethal but ineffective sanctions, anemic diplomacy and a weak United Nations as
our primary means of protecting human lives -- we will continue to be forced to
trade freedom for security or security for freedom. Ultimately
we will get neither. Only by accepting
our global interdependence and creating a global system where the protection of
human rights is given supremacy over the rights of nations to do whatever they
like, will we know real freedom and maximum security. All else is folly.
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