Do The Freakin Math

Liberals and conservatives alike frequently rely on limited evidence, personal experience, religious beliefs or gut emotions to determine solutions for complex problems. From immigration to global warming - taxes to terrorism - or health care to free trade - analytical study is rare. Science based policy making isn’t the way of Washington. And the consequences are catastrophic. Change is urgently needed. Just do the freakin’ math.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Koran burning and WMD don't mix.

“Assessing the Terrorist Threat”, a report released today summarized by it’s authors and the co-chairs of the 9-11 Commission states “Threats are measured by intent and capabilities. Al-Qaeda continues to hope to inflict mass-casualty attacks in the United States. Indeed, al-Qaeda leaders have said since 9/11 that the U.S. is owed millions of deaths because of its supposed crimes against Islam. However, the group’s capabilities to implement such a large-scale attack are currently far less formidable than they were nine years ago or indeed at any time since.”
http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100910_7168.php
http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Final%20NSPG%20Threat%20Assessment%20Report%20Sept%202010%20report%20w%20cover.pdf

Their analysis stands in stark contrast to another report detailing the growing risk from the increasing ease and affordability of creating and abusing synthetic pathogens which is matched with an apparent decreasing capacity to control such likelihood of abuse.
http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100910_5762.php

It appears warnings from biology experts are trumped by political wishful thinking. The Al Qaeda threat has certainly morphed into a more ubiquitous animal but given its mission and determination that doesn’t mean it won’t continue to morph, or has stopped its quest for WMD or weapons of mass disruption.

We quickly forget that Al Qaeda isn’t trying to destroy us literally. They hope to break us economically and divide us politically. It appears we are heading down this path in spite of Al Qaeda, but even a failed bio-terror effort by Al Qaeda or any affiliate will spur more federal spending, expensive regulation, privacy intrusions, lethal overreaction and ultimately political division.

The ultimate answer is dealing with them as the mass murderers they really are. Waging war against them only raises them to ‘warrior’ status…while creating more killers with each collateral damage victim from our ‘war’ related actions.

Preemptive wars, assassin drone attacks and Koran burnings only make more enemies. We need more friends in far away places (and now at home) willing to help us catch these mass murderers…not join them.

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Friday, September 25, 2009

BIOLOGICAL THREAT GREATER THAN NUCLEAR

U.S. BIPARTISAN COMMISSION CONFIRMS BIOLOGICAL THREAT GREATER THAN NUCLEAR.

HTTP://PREVENTWMD.GOV/

In December 2008, the U.S. Commission for the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism issued a report identifying 13 recommendations for Congress and the Administration. Executive Director Col. Randall Larsen (Ret.) comments on the report on C-span 2-24-09. http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2009/09/24/Terr/A/23523/Col+Randall+Larsen+Ret+Prevention+of+Weapons+of+Mass+Destruction+Proliferation+Terrorism+Cms.aspx His KEY POINTS:
1. Without action WMD attack likely within 5 years.
2. Most likely Bio.
The Bipartisan Commission key finding: “The Commissioners unanimously concluded that unless we act urgently and decisively, it was more likely than not that terrorists would attack a major city somewhere in the world with a weapon of mass destruction by 2013. And we determined that terrorists are more likely to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon. This conclusion was publicly affirmed by then Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Mike McConnell”
They state “three primary reasons stand out in support of our conclusion. First, developing and dispersing a biological weapon would not be expensive -- and it will only get cheaper and easier. Second, the lethality of an effectively dispersed biological weapon could rival or exceed that of an improvised nuclear device. Third, the constraints that a bioterrorist would confront in making an effective bioweapon are significantly fewer than those facing nuclear terrorists. Virtually all pathogens suitable for use in a biological weapon are readily available in nature. The equipment required to produce a large quantity from a small seed stock, and then “weaponize” the material – that is, to make it into a form that could be effectively dispersed -- are of a dual-use nature and are readily available on the internet. The most effective delivery methods are well known in the pharmaceutical, agricultural, and insect-control industries. This is not speculation. Al Qaeda was well down the road to producing such weapons prior to 9/11. Due to the ease in creating a clandestine production capability, our intelligence community had no knowledge of two such facilities in Afghanistan prior to their capture by U.S. troops. Facilities with more sophisticated equipment than those found could be in operation today without our knowledge. “
http://www.preventwmd.gov/9_22_09_world_at_risk_the_wmd_prevention_and_preparedness/

My summary: Once Americans and our policy makers of every political strip understand the dynamics of this growing threat ...our defense and foreign policies will change radically in support more progressive means of prevention of every bio threat and national security concern. They will fully understanding that 'preemption' or aggressive or intrusive disarmament efforts will only exacerbate the problem/threat. War is now obsolete. And human security, through the global enforcement of human right (See UDHR) is our only means of real and sustainable security. Military minds and strategic thinkers are grasping this reality far faster than my liberal colleagues. What's that about?

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