Victory in iraq? Bin Ladin is smiling.

Tony Blankley demonstrates a gross ignorance of both the short and long term consequences of our ‘war’ in Iraq in predicting a “Victory in Iraq” (Washington Times, 11-14-07) because of recent gains in that devastated Arab nation.

Victory in Iraq was achieved the day Bush landed on the aircraft carrier hosting the banner “Mission Accomplished”. From then on it was a blundered occupation that fertilized Al Qaeda’s global roots, attracted foreign fighters, and alienating Iraq’s local population into a crescendo of Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence, American murdering and dismembering IEDs and a flood of millions of Iraqi refugees and countless Iraqi deaths and disabilities.

What’s vital for Blankely (and anyone else serious about learning useful lessons for defeating Al Qaeda on the global level) is understanding the fact that “we” are not winning in Iraq due to our military surge. Current progress is far more the result of Al Qaeda’s brutal treatment of Iraqis and a wise change in US military tactics of putting the winning of Iraqi ‘hearts and minds’ above our inclination to achieve victory with ‘shock and awe’.

In the creation of our own nation it’s instructive to remember that the British redcoats won just about every battle before they finally lost the war.

Mr. Blankely needs to consider the true cost of the war regardless of any so called ‘victory’. The costs are actually unimaginable and may never really be fully recognized or finalized but a list worth examination.

The cost in lives: Before it is over, well over 5000 American soldiers will have given the full measure of devotion and 50,000 more will have sacrificed a measure of life few of us can contemplate. This does not include the uncountable Iraqi deaths ranging anywhere between 100,000 and one million, an uncomprehendible loss given the size of Iraq’s population (equivalent of one million to 15 million US deaths over 5 years of war). The cost in quality of life for the 700,000 US troops who have serve and returned from Iraq will be seen in the future domestic abuse of drugs, alcohol, spouses and children, and increases in homelessness, suicides, murders and a variety of mental and physical health problems.

The economic costs: In advocating for approval to invade Iraq the Bush Administration calculated a total cost of $50-60 billion. When the top White House Economic Advisor, Lawrence B. Lindsey suggested the cost would be as high as $200 billion he was shown the door. The most recent calculations suggest the true economic cost will be at least 10 times what he predicted ($1 to 3 trillion) without counting the economic costs of dealing with future human, environmental, energy, social and political consequences.

Political costs: Bin Ladin’s top two goals in defeating the US was to divide us politically and break us economically. The war in Iraq won’t break us economically but it has weakened our economy and may have split the American people more politically than the Viet Nam war. Accusations of murderous treason are not uncommon. On the global level almost every nation that aligned behind us after 9-11 stands silent or against us in calls for assistance in Iraq or cooperation in dealing with Iran.

The moral costs: Waging an effective campaign against Al Qaeda will require winning the hearts and minds of the moderate Arab world. Our ‘Shock and awe’ invasion took extraordinary efforts to avoid collateral damage but it and the occasional exuberance of our boots on the ground or as Iraqi prison guards made us far more enemies than we have eliminated. Our invasion and occupation was a recruiting windfall for Al Qaeda. Our outsourcing of security to unaccountable Blackwater elite forces and the pittance of resources devoted to provisions of clean water and electricity for Iraqi people imply or directly demonstrate our real ‘American’ values.

Security costs: Even with total victory in Iraq American troops and businesses will not be welcomed if the fighting ever ends…and the Shiite majority government we leave behind will ally more with Iran than us. Our nation’s security depends on access cheap foreign oil. The war has increased the cost of oil, reduced our friendly access to it and could yet result in terrorist attacks that could destroy global oil production and availability significantly. There is also increasing evidence that Iraqi insurgents and Al Qaeda have honed their killing skills and spreading them in person and via the world wide web to every corner of our empire. There is clear evidence that the US invasion of Iraq inspired home grown terrorists in our allied nations and has also created them here in the US. “Fighting them there” ensures that we will eventually be fighting them here. Finally, in order to find and bring suspected terrorists to justice before catastrophic attacks we will need to make many more friends in the world. Especially more friends in the Arab world. Bush’s war only made us more enemies and diverted limited and precious resources away from the most important task of finding and capturing Al Qaeda’s leaders.

Blankley’s ‘victory in Iraq’ will come. But it will be hollow. And it may yet cost us everything. We can be sure that Bin Ladin is smiling.

Addendum: Blankely’s story of his Veterans’ Day commemoration at the Dallas Fort-Worth National Cemetery patriotically honored an American “eight-year-old – who idolized his fallen big brother” and “can hardly wait to be old enough to join up to finish his brother’s job”. I have no doubt that tens of thousands of Iraqi children can hardly wait to avenge their family losses as well. Blanklely goes on to say “Of course, we know that in this world, that job of warrior will never be done – as the post war period ever glides seamlessly into the new prewar period”. How trapped he is by his own thinking! Never ending war is not inevitable. War will stop one of two different ways. We will either extinguish ourselves as a species with the most powerful weapons imaginable…or adopt the wisest form of dispute resolution/prevention we have known since the twelve tribes of Israel – federation. World federation or global obliteration. War is no longer a sane option. In today’s world of ubiquitous WMD any victory will not last and ultimately will not be worth it. It’s time to wise up.

The Surge IS working. But not for us.

It sounds like the “surge” is working! But for who?

If I were Bin Ladin or an Al Qaeda strategist and wanted to:

a) continue killing American Soldiers instead of making the 9-11 mistake of killing American civilians

b) continue to drain finite US financial resources away from their domestic education, health, transportation infrastructure, border control and other vital elements of homeland security

c) continue to exacerbate political divisions within and between Americans, and

d) continue to benefit from the recruiting windfall of anti-American sentiment in both Arab nations and within the US itself…

I would insist that my murderous recruits, be they Sunni insurgents, foreign suicide recruits or Iranian Shiite allies slightly refrain from attacking American forces (or creating insecurity for the Iraqi people) . This would hopefully lul the American generals and the peace (or victory) loving American public into thinking the Surge was working…and only needed a little more time or a few thousand more troops to be successful.

I would ensure that the Iraq war environment be manipulated however possible so that American forces would be bogged down there as long as possible.

Is the Surge working? I think it is. But not for us.

Total victory in Iraq: Dream or nightmare?

John McFarlane is a brave but foolish warrior in his plea for “victory” in for our ‘occupation’ of Iraq (Nothing less than total victory, 2-17-07). My answer to his question “Why can’t you support that victory?” is quite simple.

There is no US ‘military’ victory in Iraq that is possible without us willingly participating in mass murder against either the Sunni or Shite factions (or both).

We have three basic options:
Continue to try and stop the sectarian violence without picking a side and get caught in a thousand year crossfire that even 200,000 more US troops can’t stop.
Pick one side and force the other to capitulate. This would require either direct or indirect support for genocidal activities by the side we pick.
Withdraw US military forces and allow any genocidal activities to burn themselves out, or, replace ourselves with a Muslim army mobilized from nations not neighboring Iraq…and then fully fund their capacity to effectively police a ceasefire and federate the current Iraqi madness.

There is no US ‘military’ victory for Iraq. Not without our soldiers killing more innocent Iraqi's. The dozens of US soldiers interviewed for the documentary movie "Ground Truth" make it painfully clear that US warriors sometimes murder innocent Iraqi's in the fog of war. With already somewhere between 100,000 and 600,000 innocent Iraqis slaughtered by both radical Islamists and as ‘collateral damage’ by coalition forces, any future direct US military involvement in Iraq must stop. Our soldiers performed bravely and brilliantly in defeating Saddam’s army. They have failed in securing the Iraqi peace. Only the Iraqi’s can do that. Leaving Iraq is not ‘defeat’ in the larger war on terrorism if our willing departure inspired more moderate Muslims to join with us in defeating murderous Islamic jihadists world wide. If we force a military ‘victory’ in Iraq…we will only create more terrorists and reduce our capacity to defeat them globally.

Our soldiers were never defeated in Iraq. They were handed orders to conduct an impossible occupation. Someone needs to be held accountable for that murderous tactical and strategic mistake. Bringing the troops back home is the only real way to support them and their greater mission of defending this country against the global spread of terrorism. This will require more allies in the world. Our lethal military occupation of Iraq is only making us more enemies.